电力中断情况下需重视储能系统恢复力的价值

基于对各种建筑的深入建模，企业应将光伏发电和储能部署的真正价值放在防止电力中断损失的基础上，从而实现太阳能+储能系统的成本效益设计。在某些情况下，将恢复力(resilience)视为一种价值，甚至可以使太阳能+储能项目在技术不可行的情况下变得可行。

对组织来说，对电力中断造成的损失进行评估是一个挑战。对于电源中断的恢复力没有明确的市场价值，而数据中心或银行部门可能能够将预期的损失估算出来，但这对大多数组织来说是极其困难的。在紧急情况下，一些机构提供服务的设施尤其如此，如医院、急救人员和收容所。因此，避免这些损失（即电源恢复力价值）的经济价值一般在组织作出投资决定时很少考虑。其结果是，人们认为部署光伏发电和电池储能项目可能成本过高，尽管灾难和断电会给组织带来惨重的损失。

美国能源部国家可再生能源实验室（NREL）和清洁能源集团（CEG）新发表的论文“重视太阳能和储能系统设计的重要性”介绍了加利福尼亚州阿纳海姆的三种方案：学校，办公楼和酒店。对于每一种客户类型探讨了两种情况：一种是假设恢复力没有任何价值，一种通过每小时中断的经济损失来评估恢复力。这些恢复力的价值是以劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室研究人员先前研究的客户调查数据为基础的。

通过这种方法量化典型停电持续时间内不同客户的停电损失成本，这个报告阐述了在这些技术采用决策中的恢复力对于经济损失的影响。并在每种情况下进行分析，而当部署更大规模的光伏和电池储能系统被认为是经济可行的时候，其恢复力的价值值得考虑。

在确定太阳能+储能系统的恢复力时需要考虑的因素：

•目前的电力成本

•建立负载配置文件

•平均中断时间

•平均中断成本

•每月中断发生的时间

•每年中断发生的时间

•临界负载

•电池的其他用途

这个结果对于储能来说令人关注目，从而为部署在办公室和酒店的电池系统带来了积极的经济效益，如果不考虑其所避免电力中断的价值，那么其部署将是没有意义的。这将让组织节省了更多的成本，因为在酒店部署这个系统所避免损失的价值是其净收益的两倍以上，在太阳能发电+储能系统的整个生命周期将增加了17.8万美元的价值。对于学校来说，增加电力中断的防护能力的结果是建立一个电池储能系统，如果考虑到恢复力的价值，那么部署的电池系统的经济效益将是没有考虑建议的13倍，并且组织将节省一半的净成本。

最近频发的重大天气事件导致随之而来的大范围电力中断，这一分析报告对于部署这个系统的意义来说尤为及时。这些极端事件（如波多黎各的玛丽亚飓风）已经提高了人们对弹性电源解决方案的需求和认识，因为许多柴油发电机由于设备故障和燃料短缺原因，只能提供时间有限的支持。

评估恢复力加大了光伏系统部署规模，将提高大型办公室的经济性

清洁能源集团（CEG）副总裁兼项目总监Seth Mullendore表示：“正如报告的研究结果所表明的那样，部署太阳能发电+电池储能项目防止电力中断可以为许多类型的客户带来显著的价值。 现在通过提高恢复力，将促进下一次电力中断之前部署更多的太阳能发电+电池储能项目。这对于企业来说很重要，而对于像病人和老年人这样的脆弱人群的人身安全来说，更重要的是获得电力，因为这可能意味着生与死之间的差别。

即使过去几年太阳能发电+电池储能项目的成本快速下滑，其部署仍然会受到优惠的电价结构或无障碍市场机会的地区的限制。由于组织没有将避免电力中断的损失的价值纳入项目决策中，所以恢复力目前不是部署这种发电储能系统的经济驱动因素。

“电池系统安装可以采取多种形式，其空间要求从冰箱大小到兆瓦级规模系统的集装箱，旨在满足大型企业或工业客户的关键电力需求。”Mullendore说，“需要牢记的是，弹性系统能够在电网中断期间提供可靠的电力，能够为组织提供更多价值，但也需要额外的组件，并加大了设计的复杂性，这将增加任何安装的前期成本。”

在大多数情况下，组织需要关注恢复力对于增加光伏+电池储能系统的规模和可行性。通过对与电力中断有关的损失进行评估，太阳能发电+电池储能系统在更多地点的部署具有经济意义，并确保人们为应对下一场灾难做好充分的准备。

（中国储能网独家编译，转载请注明来源）

Putting a Value on the Resilience of Energy Storage Systems

January 31, 2018 by Emily Holbrook

Findings presented in a new paper by the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Clean Energy Group (CEG) show that more integrated solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage projects could make economic sense if the value of avoiding power outages is taken into account in project economics.

Based on in-depth modeling of various building types, putting a real value on the ability of PV and storage to prevent losses during outages results in the cost-effective design of larger solar+storage systems. In some cases, putting a value on resilience can even make solar+storage projects feasible where the technologies would not be economically viable otherwise.

It is often a challenge for building owners to put a value on expected losses from power outages. There is no clear market value for energy resilience, and, while a data center or bank may be able to put a dollar value on anticipated losses due to outages, it is extremely difficult for most organizations to place a monetizable value on resilience-related investments. This is particularly true for facilities providing services that a community depends on in an emergency situation, like hospitals, first responders, and shelters. As a result, the economic value of avoiding these losses (that is, the value of energy resilience) is generally not factored in when owners are making investment decisions. As a result, PV and battery storage may be deemed too expensive, even though disasters and power outages result in billions of dollars of losses to the economy.

CEG and NREL’s new paper, Valuing Resilience on Solar and Storage System Design, looks at three building scenarios in Anaheim, California: a school, an office building, and a hotel. For each of these customer types, two scenarios were explored – one placing no value on resilience and one valuing resilience in terms of dollars lost per hour of outage. These resilience values are based on customer survey data from a previous study by researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

By applying this methodology to quantify the cost of outage-related losses for different customers over typical outage durations reported by the utility serving Anaheim, Southern California Edison, this paper illustrates the impact that placing value on resilience has on these types of technology adoption decisions. In each case analyzed, larger PV and battery storage systems are found to be economical when the value of resilience is accounted for.

Considerations when sizing a solar+storage system for resiliency:

Current electricity costs

Building load profile

Average duration of outages

Average cost of outages

Times of day when outages occur

Times of year when outages occur

Critical loads

Other uses for battery

The results are particularly striking for storage, resulting in positive economics for battery systems in the office and hotel that would not make sense without including the value of avoided outages. This also increases the total lifetime savings realized by the building owner. Incorporating the value of avoided losses for the hotel results in more than a doubling of net benefits, an increase of $178,000 over the lifetime of the system. For the school, adding in the value of resilience results in a battery system that is thirteen times larger than what would be recommended if resilience were assigned no value, again doubling net savings for the building owner.

This analysis is particularly timely in light of recent major weather events and the widespread power outages that followed. These extreme events, such as Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico, have raised awareness of the need for better resilient power solutions, as many diesel generators were found to provide limited support due to equipment failures and fuel shortages.

Valuing Resilience Increases the Optimal PV System Size and Makes the Addition of Storage Economical on a Large Office

“As the findings in this paper suggest, avoiding outages with resilient solar+storage can deliver significant value to many types of customers,” said Seth Mullendore, coauthor of the paper and vice president and project director at CEG. “By placing a value on resilience now, more solar+storage could be deployed before the next big storm hits. This is important for businesses, but even more essential to the safety of our most vulnerable populations, like the sick and the elderly, where access to power could literally mean the difference between life and death.”

Even with the rapid decline in PV and battery storage prices over the last few years, solar+storage installations have remained largely limited to areas with favorable utility rate tariff structures or accessible market opportunities. Because there is no accepted method for incorporating the value of avoided power outage losses into project decisions, the resilience is currently not an economic driver of such systems.

“Battery system installations can take many forms, with space requirements ranging from about the footprint of a dormitory fridge for a small-business to a shipping container for a megawatt-hour scale system designed to meet the critical power needs of a large business or industrial customer,” said Mullendore. “It’s important to keep in mind that resilient systems, those able to island and deliver reliable power during a grid outage, can provide more value to business, but also require additional components and added design complexities, which will increase the upfront cost of any installation.”

The analysis detailed in this paper demonstrates that, in most cases, valuing resilience will increase the size, and viability, of both PV and battery storage. By placing a value on outage-related losses, solar+ storage could make economic sense in many more locations today, ensuring more communities are better prepared for the next disaster.